Executive Summary

Prospects for democratic consolidation in Southeast Europe and Eurasia have changed considerably since the early part of this decade. Moreover, the democratic “frontrunners” of Central Europe have encountered their own challenges in developing stable, participatory, liberal systems. Now is a critical time to redirect attention to the long-term demands of democratic consolidation and to bring past experience to bear in addressing new challenges.

Since its formal launch in January 2005, the Project on Democratic Transitions (PDT) has sought to better understand the dramatic political and economic transitions of post-communist Europe and Eurasia. In its initial phase, the PDT has developed valuable insights into the competing forces that have transformed formerly communist Europe/Eurasia since 1989. In comparing the diverse trajectories of these countries, the Project has assessed the main internal and external factors that have contributed to – or impeded – democratization, and it has begun to apply these insights to current challenges facing those who support further democratization in the region. The Project is now moving into its second phase: sharing strategically the lessons we have drawn from the first 19 years of postcommunist transition. Our goal is to have a practical impact, particularly in countries still hanging in the balance. Our target audiences include leaders in the region working to build democracy as well as external democracy-supporters. Both can benefit from the practical lessons of the past so as to respond more promptly and effectively to the rapidly evolving challenges of the present.

The Project is guided by a Transatlantic Steering Group composed of more than two dozen senior European and American practitioners, scholars and policy thinkers with experience in post-authoritarian reform;[1] it is supported by a small research staff based at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia. The perspectives developed by the PDT are distinctive in their scope, drawing on both academic insights and practical, first-hand experience. Our analysis encompasses a broad spectrum of forces influencing political development: initial conditions, political institutions, political and social dynamics, economic policy and market reform, and external support. Through two conferences with strong transatlantic participation, the publication of two special issues of the FPRI quarterly Orbis, and the creation of a website of relevant materials, the PDT has already established a substantial foundation of analysis and best practices for building democratic market systems in the region.

Having examined the divergent political and economic paths traveled by all twenty-nine formerly communist countries of Europe and Eurasia, the PDT has found that the trend towards democratization – which seemed predominant across much of the region only four years ago – now faces important reverses and unanticipated challenges. A new “post-postcommunist” paradigm has emerged in Europe/Eurasia – a paradigm that requires a serious reappraisal of both policy and practice by democracy proponents in Western capitals and within the transitional countries themselves.[2] Given this new context, the PDT’s policy and operational impact will be greatest if we focus with particular intensity on a few key countries and on carefully selected target audiences both within these countries, in the U.S., and in key Western and Central European capitals.

As it enters its second phase, the PDT aims to disseminate its conclusions and operational recommendations to two distinct target audiences: emerging political, social, and economic leaders in countries of the region where democracy is fragile and uncertain; and policymakers in the United States and other democratic capitals whose support for postcommunist democratic initiatives can make a difference for their survival. We plan to launch two tracks of dialogue to develop effective policy agendas within new democracies and among external supporters:

In partnership with local NGOs, we plan to begin a series of 3-day workshops for younger emerging political and economic leaders, including democracy activists and NGO leaders; engaged academics and policy thinkers; and others actively developing the building blocks of democracy in several key countries. The workshops will provide participants and their organizations with an intellectual foundation for addressing new challenges and opportunities as they emerge, and a chance to learn from both the successes and failures of the past to avoid costly detours and mistakes.

Led by authoritative members of the TSG, the workshops will launch an ongoing dialogue among practitioners and will allow leaders on the front lines of constructing democracy to produce their own action plans, building on the first-hand experience of those who have led transitions elsewhere. Specific workshop agendas will be demand-driven and context-sensitive. They will be developed in collaboration with local partners to reflect nation-specific concerns and challenges, such as fostering public participation, developing effective linkages between state and society, and building more effective political institutions.

Kiev, Ukraine, October 2008, in partnership with Europe XXI Century Foundation

Timişoara, Romania, May 2009, in partnership with the Euroregional Center for Democracy

Building on our relationship with the Euroregional Center for Democracy and its regional networks, future workshops could extend to Serbia and Bosnia. We anticipate that the workshops will not be one-time events but the first step in continuing collaboration and mutual learning between these NGOs and the PDT.

Many of the lessons of postcommunist transition relate to the methods and effectiveness of external actors – governments, multilateral institutions, and private funders – in supporting democratic development. Moreover, a number of factors in the international environment have contributed to the recent democratic regression in Europe. Thus, the PDT plans to implement a second track of dialogue with these outside actors whose support, if well targeted and coordinated, can be critical to the consolidation efforts of democratic leaders within the postcommunist countries.

In particular, we plan to conduct policy briefings and half-day or daylong interactive seminars with policy officials and analysts in Washington, Brussels and other European capitals (including Warsaw, Bratislava or other new democracies that are actively supporting democratization efforts in neighboring countries). The U.S. presidential election presents a valuable opportunity to reach advisors to the next president and later to influence key members of a new administration, including senior officials at the White House/NSC, State Department, USAID, National Endowment for Democracy, and U.S. Congress.

Following up on these initial, targeted forums of discussion, the PDT hopes in its subsequent phase to catalyze broader, ongoing interaction between those with experience, expertise or funding and those who can put these insights directly to work in key transitional countries to build more effective and durable democratic systems. This would be accomplished through larger, region-wide workshops involving NGOs from several countries, and via continuing interaction stimulated by the Project website.

[1] See www.democratictransitions.org or www.frpi.org for information on the Transatlantic Steering Group, PDT staff, and other pertinent materials.

[2] See article “Must Democracy Continue to Retreat in Postcommunist Europe and Eurasia?” by Adrian A. Basora, Orbis, Winter 2008.