Seminar II: Refining Lessons Learned and Testing Their Applicability
Union League, Philadelphia, February 22-24, 2007
The Project conducted a second seminar in February of 2007 to build on the intellectual foundations laid down at our inaugural seminar in January 2006, and on the subsequent research and dialog that it stimulated. The seminar’s goal was to advance substantially our working hypotheses on the political aspects of the post-communist transitions, and to begin laying the groundwork for a persuasive set of related policy recommendations. The latter will be aimed both at reform leaders in the transitional countries themselves and at relevant policy makers and democracy-promoters in Eastern Europe, Western Europe, and the United States.
Specifically, the Transatlantic Steering Group (TSG) sought to:
Agree upon a more complete and refined set of working hypotheses on the factors that contributed to, or retarded, sustainable democratic transformations in postcommunist Europe and Eurasia
Begin to translate these hypotheses into a set of lessons learned that appear applicable to the less advanced transitional states of the region
Confirm a TSG consensus, or majority view, on whether some or all of the “hybrid” states are ripe for the application of these lessons
Agree as to which of these lessons are likely to have the greatest impact in these countries in the near and middle term
Begin a discussion of the Project’s approach towards the more hardened autocracies of the region, where many of these lessons may not currently be applicable but might become so over time
Conference Agenda
Thursday afternoon/evening, February 22
(Registration and hotel check-in available from 3:00 pm onwards)
6:00 Reception (Union League, Lincoln Library)
7:00 Opening dinner (welcoming remarks by Basora and Sicherman*)
Friday, February 23
9:00 Coffee (Lincoln Room)
9:30 Tentative working hypotheses and illustrative policy proposals
(Discussion of drafts based on January 2006 seminar and subsequent research)
(Basora presenting; Krastev and Carothers as discussants)
10:30 Break
10:45 Breakout Groups (for in-depth discussion of the above hypotheses/proposals):
A. Political institutions in post-communist transitions
- Executive vs. legislative power
- Parties
- Rule of law
- Federalism (Butora + Bunce to co-chair)
B. Political dynamics of transition and consolidation
- Mass mobilization
- The role of elites and of individual leaders
- Civil society
- The media
- Sequencing; clean break vs. gradualism (Mungiu-Pippidi + Simons)
C. Historical, cultural and societal factors
- Prior democratic and state experience/political culture
- Social structure and educational levels
- Ethnicity and religion (Rupnik + Wolchik)
D. Political economy of transformation
- Economic liberalization
- Development of a middle class/bourgeoisie
- Reliance on high-value raw materials (Bielecki + Yalowitz)
12:30 Lunch
2:00 Breakout Reports: Proposed Answers to the Questions Assigned
(Greskovits + Model as co-chairs and discussants)
3:30 Applicability: Can history be repeated? (Discussion of seminar paper on applicability of lessons from the 1990’s to the transitional states of today.)
(Bunce as presenter; Demes as discussant)
5:00 Adjournment
6:30 Reception
7:30 Dinner (remarks by former PM Bielecki on lessons learned in Poland and from certain more recent transitions)
Saturday, February 24
9:00 Coffee
9:30 Case studies -- applying the proposed answers to key transitional states
(This session will be based on individual country papers prepared in advance by the presenters below, with the discussion focusing primarily on testing the preliminary conclusions of the previous day’s Breakout Groups against each of the specific case studies.)
Serbia – Sonja Licht
Moldova – Alina Mungiu-Pippidi
Georgia – Vladimer Papava
Ukraine – Mykola Riabchuk
12:15 Lunch
1:30 How can external actors be more effective within the new realities of Europe/Eurasia?
This session will focus on two policy recommendations memoranda prepared in advance by Pavol Demes and Ivan Krastev, but discussion will also incorporate conclusions from the previous day’s Breakout Groups. Topics will include:
- EU
- NATO
- International financial institutions
- Other international organizations
- Role of Western European governments, NGO’s and CEE neighbors
- United States government and U.S.-based NGOs
- Russia
(Demes and Krastev presenters; Mathernova and Carothers discussants)
3:30 Summation of key conference findings + outline of plans for follow-up action
(Bunce and Basora)
4:30 Adjournment